EcoPolitical

A new strain of a CoronaVirus is reportedly wreaking havoc in China, and has supposedly spread to over ten countries (including in Europe). This virus is said to have originated in snakes or bats and tramistted to humans in the food market in Wuhan, but there is no dearth of alternative explanations as regards to the provenance of this killer.  The propensity of the Chinese to keep things bottled up is well known, and just the fact that they are opening up about this super-virus serves as a good indicator of how widespread the threat truly is. There is a nation-wide ban on wildlife trade as a result, and over 56 million people in 20 cities have been effectively quarantined via travel restrictions. While officially infections are said to be restricted to under 2,000 people, there are some reports from alleged ' whistle-blowers ' who peg the number at nearly 90,000 patients.  While no one really knows how much toll this virus will extract, I do think the impact of lar...

The rise of China has been the defining force of the last 15-20 years. Its economic miracle built on the back of debt and liquidity, and investing for an export driven economy drove commodity prices, and indeed global geopolitics. Its worth noting that per some estimates China's total debt today tops 300% of its GDP, and at an estimated US$40 trillion accounts for 15% of all global debt. But arguably, the export miracle never really materialised with net exports accounting for only about 2% of the total rise in GDP between 2006 and 2019. However there is another aspect of the China story which, albeit not ignored, is not as appreciated as one believes it should be. This pertains to Chinese investments in other countries, a strategy that appears to be driven more more by foreign policy, than economic considerations. These have totaled a staggering US$ 2 trillion in the last 15 years, as per data compiled by the American Enterprise Institute and The Heritage F...

It is the stated goal of PM Narendra Modi to make India a US$ 5 trillion economy by the year FY 2025. For perspective, India's nominal GDP stands at US$2.7 trillion in FY 2019, suggesting that a Cagr of 10.7% would be required over the next 5-6 years to achieve this target.  For a better understanding of this journey, I decided to look at China for guidance. China had a ~US$2.7 trillion GDP in the year 2006, and managed to achieve a US$5 trillion in just three years (by 2009). A scorching GDP Cagr of 22.9%.  What stood out for me is how little "exports" contributed to this rapid rise in the GDP for China. This is particularly interesting because for those who even cursorily followed economic news around this time, primarily knew China as an export miracle.  In reality, increase in exports contributed only 0.5% of the total increase in GDP between 2006 and 2009. Yes, just US$12bn of the GDP increase came from net exports. The primary driver for China...