Congress: Plugging a chasm with cello-tape

That Congress is a sole proprietorship has been made clear to us over decades, whether anecdotally or through various books authored by politicians/former bureaucrats/journalists. In fact in the recent Shahzad Poonawalla episode, a leaked tape suggests that Manish Tiwari referred to Congress as sole proprietorship in as many words. This has been achieved through the years allegedly by the subjugation of regional leadership by the ruling dynasty. The key goal being to centralize power in the dynasty's hands. The result of this has been the exodus by Congress stalwarts into other or new political outfits to pursue their own careers. 

This page, lists over 40 breakaway parties (some of which may have merged back into Congress, or with other parties) from the Congress. Quite a dubious achievement for what calls itself as the Grand Old Party of India. The most notable break-away factions are Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party, YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress, Mufti Sayeed’s PDP, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, etc. Notably, Congress’ virtual demise in Tamil Nadu was also reportedly orchestrated with the help of C. Rajaji who formed his own Party in opposition to Nehru’s hold over the Congress. 

The key reason self-driven, mass leaders in the Congress felt stifled was perhaps the Party’s need to promote one family, one dynasty as the only acceptable leadership. The result is that there is hardly any mass leader available with the Congress today (apart from Captain Amarinder Singh). It has become a Party of lawyers and media liaisons. This is also the reason why Congress has lost more votes to regional parties over the last several elections than to the BJP, its chief rival.

Source: Paper done by S.Kumar of CSDS

Now at the time when the Party is headed by who many believe is the weakest link in what have been progressively weak links in its dynastic succession chain, it has made some inexplicable moves. In State after State, the Party is now helping create local leaders, the exact opposite of its history!

Whether it was the case in Bihar, where it bolstered Nitish Kumar, or Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh, or Delhi where it supported Arvind Kejriwal, or most recently Gujarat where it needed to create three new leaders (Alpesh, Hardik and Jignesh) to take on the BJP. Inadvertently, the new ruler in the Congress is ceding ground that was hard fought for by his ancestors. I have no doubt that once the new start-ups find their feet, they will not take a second to ditch their alliance with the Congress. Congress, in order to stop decay, has successfully added termites to its own foundation. 

However the strategic errors of Congress do not stop here, the ‘temple run’ of Rahul Gandhi has further confused its core voters, if one were to look at the reported voting patterns:

Source:http://www.firstpost.com/politics/gujarat-assembly-election-2017-results-breakdown-of-bjps-congress-region-wise-performance-4266145.html

The strongest vote share gains, community wise came from the Patel community, an achievement, if one can call it that, of Hardik Patel. And even here despite the efforts, the BJP polled more votes in absolute numbers. Such short term alliances of convenience and the euphoria surrounding them, set-up with the singular objective of defeating one particular rival are short lived. Arvind Kejriwal is a prime example of such a phenomenon, for someone once touted as the next Prime Minister he is now struggling in the Chief Ministers’s office. The Patels will return to BJP the next election, knowing that they cannot defeat the incumbent. If any remain opposed, then they will be Hardik Patel’s vote bank and not that of the Congress. Basically, Congress has now created another regional rival that it expended resources propping up pre-elections and will now expend resources under-cutting for the next five years. The same goes for Alpesh and Jignesh. It appears that the only thing that Rahul Gandhi managed to do with his ‘temple run’ is to reduce Congress’s share of the Muslim vote.

What Congress doesn’t realize is that unlike itself, the BJP under Amit Shah and Narendra Modi does not fight elections on caste faultlines. The new regional leaders will thus cannibalize the Congress’ vote bank on an enduring basis than that of the BJP. As such, one cannot help but feel that Congress is on a structural decline as it faces up to the reality of what it has done to regional leaders over the past several decades. Those with ability to carve out a mandate have formed their own political allegiances even as leaders lower down the competency scale continued to ascend the Congress’ throne. And now a direction-less Congress is left with nothing to do other than nourish its own future rivals in the hope of surviving till the next election.